Obama and an Israeli-Palestinian Peace Agreement

This week on Fareed Zakaria GPS, the weekly question is: "Do you think that President Obama will be able to negotiate a peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians in this term? Why or Why not?"

Here is my response to his question (which I did in fact email into the show):

I believe that it will be unlikely that President Obama will be able to negotiate a peace deal between the Israelis and the Palestinians in this current term. First of all, it is almost out of the question that there is a one-state solution. Given the losses faced by both sides, the strong historical claims that both states have, as well as the large number of third-party states that are deeply invested in supporting one side or the other in this conflict, it would seem unlikely that a one-state solution would be viable.

Secondly, given the most recent Israel-Gaza conflict and the events that transpired, Palestinians, most likely, would be more than hesitant to engage with Israel in negotiations because of a great sense of distrust. Negotiations cannot be successfully conducted when each party is actively thinking the worst about their counterparts.

The only real opportunity for a peaceful settlement would require Syria to play a significant role as not only a mediator but as a negotiator. The only way for any resemblance of a peace between Palestinians and Israelis would likely require a prior deal between Israel and Syria. For such a deal to occur would require Israel to return the Golan Heights to Syria. If that were to happen, Syria could then place friendly pressure on Palestinians to agree to a deal with Israel. All of this, of course, would be complemented by US pressure on Israel to conclude a peace deal with the Palestinians.

In terms of Obama's ability to affect this process, he would obviously be able to direct US influence on Israel but that would essentially be the extent to his real influence. Seeing as Obama can only lend his influence but no real decision-making ability, the likelihood of Obama brokering a peace is small. There are simply too many non-US components to this type of scenario for Obama to be truely influential in any peace deal between Israel and Palestinians.

Now it may be possible for Obama to have a greater degree of success in helping to achieve peace between these two parties but given the complexity, Obama will require more than the 4 year term he currently has. If he is able to secure a second term in office then the likelihood would dramatically increase.

- blenCOWe

Playing Both Sides

The BBC is reporting today that Russia will be buying unmanned drones from Israel. The Russians apparently were so impressed with the Israeli drones in action during the conflict in Georgia this past August.

Normally, a transaction like this would not be out of the ordinary, they happen all the time. Canada does this all the time to meet its equipment demands. The difference with this situation is where Israel receives its support from. Each year Israel gets $300 billion in economic and military aid from the United States. So in effect, the military aid that the United States provides to Israel will be used to help supply the Russians.

Now I am not one to exaggerate any lingering Cold War tensions but considering the Russians and the Americans have been at odds recently over plans for a missile shield as well as during the Georgian conflict, I don't know that the United States would be too happy about this. Now they might not come right out and say this but let's be real. Russia is a rising power again; an energy giant intent of re-establishing its place in the international hierarchy that diminished at the end of the 1980s. Russia is doing a lot of posturing lately that should make observers a bit unnerved. Of late, Russia has stepped on some toes in regards to the Arctic; re-establishing Cold War era patterns of activity in Arctic airspace as well as ruffling feathers with the connections it is making with leaders like Hugo Chavez.

The reason that all of this is worrisome is because of the effect that this could have on the rest of the world. A war between two great powers is the last thing this world needs, especially when both possess the majority of nuclear weapons in this world.

Hmmm... another Israeli action that could threaten international peace and security!

- blenCOWe

Enough Already!

I'm beginning to get really tired of hearing Israel's blanket excuse for attacking civilian establishments and non-combatants. The "Hamas was firing rockets from so-and-so site" has pretty much lost whatever credibility it had.

First they attacked the Islamic University in Gaza, next a United Nations school and now the United Nations headquarters in Gaza. It may just be me but its seems like the Israeli attacks are being targeted at those establishments where a strong voice of opposition to the claims of self-defense could originate. Israel is making sure that the only voice heard is theirs and no news of the actions they take themselves can be heard.

This strategy leads one (at least me) to think that the IDF may not be acting in self-defense but lashing out in anger; possibly committing crimes against humanity. If this were the case, Israel would definitely not want word of the crimes it was committing to leak out for everyone to find out about. That is why it makes sense that Israel is proceeding as they are. They want to hide what is really happening in Gaza so that they do not attract more negative publicity than they are already receiving. Israel cannot afford to lose what few allies it has, especially the United States. If it were to come out that Israel was committing war crimes then it would likely lose the support of the US and then would likely suffer the wrath of the international community.

I wonder if there will be anyone left to speak out against Israel when they are done?

- blenCOWe