Russia's true intentions

Like most people around the world, my recent free time has been dominated by watching the Olympics and cheering on my home nations (Great Britain and Canada). Nevertheless, my ears perk up when I hear the few stories that are reported concerning the war in Georgia/South Ossetia.

The more I think about it, I truly believe that Russia's intervention has had nothing to do with protecting the separatists in South Ossetia. Okay, so Russia has allowed the granting of passports to the people of the breakaway region and battled the Georgian forces who were attempting to restore stability in the area. If this was all that Russia was doing I would believe that their intentions were honourable. But that's not all that Russia is doing...

Recent stories about the conflict have shown that the conflict as is stands now has engaged in more than protectionist movements. Russian forces have sunk a Georgian boat, destroyed a civilian airport and refused a Georgian offer for a ceasefire. In taking these actions, Russia is showing a desire to expand the conflict into the rest of Georgia and have it continue.

Also, Russia has attacked a major pipeline that provides oil to the West. This pipeline is a major economic source for the Georgian people and pumps approximately 1% of the world's oil. This show's a deliberate attempt to further this conflict past not only the people of South Ossetia but the rest of Georgia and the West.

But why are they doing this? South Ossetia cannot be that valuable to the Russian Federation and as already mentioned, this conflict is going beyond just the separatist ambitions of the small area.

Well what about the oil? Unlikely. The pipeline is not that strategic of a target.

So why does Russia believe this such an important situation to escalate what could have remained relatively benign?

Just throwing this out there... but as I've already posted, we're seeing a return to Cold War style politics.

Russia's determination to destabilize the Georgian state might be Russia's bloody response to the missile shield currently being built by NATO in central Europe. Russia has already broached the subject of placing strategic bombers in Cuba and has agreed to sell $2 billion worth of weapons systems to Venezuala and Hugo Chavez.

These first two moves came in response to the missile shield but why this move, and why now?

Well the last one is easy: the Olympics provides cover for the Russians to avoid being crucified in the media for the moves they have made beyond protecting the separatists. By the time the world awakens from its Olympic daze, the majority of the damage and atrocities of war will have already taken place.

Now for the other why...

Georgia is a strong ally of the United States and is campaigning for its inclusion into the membership of the NATO alliance. If that were to occur then Russia would have to feel more threatened than it ever has because a member of the western alliance and strong ally of the US would be right up on its doorstep. I realize the Russia already is member of NATO that shares a border with Russia (Latvia) but Georgia has the increased likelihood of having missile systems placed on its soil because of its geographic proximity to Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria. This will increase the fear already instilled in Russia by the missiles going into Poland.

Georgia's membership however is not guaranteed. While a promise has been given that it will become a member, there is no timeline attached to it. This is what is likely enticing the Russians to take this plan of action. As long as Georgia is in this destabilized state, it will not be invited into full membership in NATO because to do so would embroil NATO into the conflict based on its collective security agreements. Therefore, the members of NATO will not vote to include Georgia if it will mean that they will be involved in battling the Russians because of the large scale conflict that would likely ensue despite the already existing commitments to Afghanistan. Georgia, in effect, would be the fuse to the next world war.

So much for Russia's benevolent intentions!

-blenCOWe